New politics of climate change: From a regulatory state to a welfare state.

How do social welfare structures influence adaptation readiness across Global South countries? This exploratory paper examines whether countries with universalistic social welfare policies are associated with higher readiness for climate adaptation. Social welfare interventions seek to protect citizens from market-induced systemic risks. Climate adaptation also seeks to protect citizens from systemic risks from climate disruptions, both the slow onset and more dramatic events such as hurricanes and floods. Using a panel of 76 Global South countries for the period 1995-2020, we find that more universalistic welfare states are associated with higher preparedness for climate adaptation, even after controlling for social welfare expenditures, climate vulnerability, wealth, and levels of democracy. Moreover, we find that the share of renewables in energy (a proxy for climate mitigation) is not associated with adaptation readiness, suggesting that adaptation and mitigation do not crowd out each other.

Recommended citation: Brown, C. T., Prakesh, A., Dolsak, N. (working). New politics of climate change: From a regulatory state to a welfare state.